第一章 · Section 1
Introduction · 引言
How can we best conceptualize and approach the original problem regarding which the AI field was founded: the creation of thinking machines with general intelligence comparable to, or greater than, that of human beings? The standard approach of the AI discipline (Russell and Norvig, 2010), as it has evolved in the 6 decades since the field's founding, views artificial intelligence largely in terms of the pursuit of discrete capabilities or specific practical tasks. But while this approach has yielded many interesting technologies and theoretical results, it has proved relatively unsuccessful in terms of the original central goals of the field.
我们该如何最好地概念化并处理 AI 领域创立时面对的那个原始问题:创造与人类同等或更高的一般智能的思维机器?AI 学科的标准做法,自领域创立以来六十年间的演化,大体上把人工智能视为对离散能力或特定实际任务的追求。但这一做法虽然产出了许多有趣的技术与理论成果,就领域的原始核心目标而言,却被证明相对不成功。
Ray Kurzweil (Kurzweil, 2005) has used the term "narrow AI" to refer to the creation of systems that carry out specific "intelligent" behaviors in specific contexts. For a narrow AI system, if one changes the context or the behavior specification even a little bit, some level of human reprogramming or reconfiguration is generally necessary to enable the system to retain its level of intelligence. This is quite different from natural generally intelligent systems like humans, which have a broad capability to self-adapt to changes in their goals or circumstances, performing "transfer learning" (Taylor, Kuhlmann, and Stone, 2008) to generalize knowledge from one goal or context to others. The concept of "Artificial General Intelligence" has emerged as an antonym to "narrow AI", to refer to systems with this sort of broad generalization capability.
雷·库兹韦尔用"窄 AI"一词指代在特定语境中执行特定"智能"行为的系统。对一个窄 AI 系统来说,只要语境或行为规格稍有改变,通常就需要某种程度的人类重新编程或重新配置,才能让系统维持原有的智能水平。这与人类等自然的通用智能系统截然不同——人类拥有对目标或环境变化的广泛自适应能力,通过"迁移学习"把知识从一个目标或语境泛化到其他目标。作为"窄 AI"的反义词,"通用人工智能"(AGI)这一概念应运而生,指具有这种广泛泛化能力的系统。
A system need not possess infinite generality, adaptability and flexibility to count as "AGI". Informally, AGI may be thought of as aimed at bridging the gap between current AI programs, which are narrow in scope, and the types of AGI systems commonly seen in fiction – robots like R2D2, C3PO, HAL 9000, Wall-E and so forth; but also general intelligences taking non-robotic form, such as the generally intelligent chat-bots depicted in numerous science fiction novels and films. And some researchers construe AGI much more broadly than even the common science fictional interpretations of AI would suggest, interpreting it to encompass the full gamut of possible synthetic minds, including hypothetical ones far beyond human comprehension, such as uncomputable minds like AIXI (Hutter, 2005). The precise definition or characterization of AGI is one of the subjects of study of the AGI research field.
一个系统不必拥有无限的通用性、适应性与灵活性,才配称为"AGI"。非正式地说,AGI 可被视为旨在弥合"范围狭窄的当前 AI 程序"与"科幻中常见的 AGI 系统"之间的鸿沟——如 R2D2、C3PO、HAL 9000、瓦力(Wall-E)等机器人;也包括非机器人形态的通用智能,如众多科幻小说与电影中描绘的通用智能聊天机器人。而有些研究者对 AGI 的解读,甚至比常见科幻对 AI 的诠释还要宽泛——他们把它诠释为涵盖一切可能的合成心智,包括远超人类理解范围的假想心智,如 AIXI 这样的不可计算心智。AGI 的精确定义或刻画,正是 AGI 研究领域的研究主题之一。
In recent years, a somewhat broad community of researchers united by the explicit pursuit of AGI has emerged, as evidenced for instance by conference series like AGI, BICA (Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures) and Advances in Cognitive Systems, and numerous special tracks and symposia on Human-Level Intelligence, Integrated Intelligence and related themes. The "AGI community", consisting e.g. of the attendees at the AGI-related conferences mentioned above, is a fuzzy set containing researchers with various interpretations of, and varying levels of commitment to, the AGI concept. This paper surveys the key ideas and directions of the contemporary AGI community.
近年来,一个由"明确追求 AGI"联结起来的、相当广泛的研究者社区已经形成——例如 AGI、BICA(生物启发认知架构)、Advances in Cognitive Systems 等会议系列,以及众多关于人类级智能、整合智能及相关主题的特设轨与研讨会。由上述 AGI 相关会议与会者等构成的"AGI 社区",是一个模糊集合,包含对 AGI 概念有不同诠释、不同承诺程度的研究者。本文综述当代 AGI 社区的关键思想与方向。
1.1 什么是通用智能?
What is General Intelligence?
But what is this "general intelligence" of what we speak? A little later, I will review some of the key lines of thinking regarding the precise definition of the GI concept. Qualitatively speaking, though, there is broad agreement in the AGI community on some key features of general intelligence:
• General intelligence involves the ability to achieve a variety of goals, and carry out a variety of tasks, in a variety of different contexts and environments.
• A generally intelligent system should be able to handle problems and situations quite different from those anticipated by its creators.
• A generally intelligent system should be good at generalizing the knowledge it's gained, so as to transfer this knowledge from one problem or context to others.
• Arbitrarily general intelligence is not possible given realistic resource constraints.
• Real-world systems may display varying degrees of limited generality, but are inevitably going to be a lot more efficient at learning some sorts of things than others; and for any given real-world system, there will be some learning tasks on which it is unacceptably slow. So real-world general intelligences are inevitably somewhat biased toward certain sorts of goals and environments.
• Humans display a higher level of general intelligence than existing AI programs do, and apparently also a higher level than other animals.
• It seems quite unlikely that humans happen to manifest a maximal level of general intelligence, even relative to the goals and environment for which they have been evolutionarily adapted.
但我们所说的"通用智能"到底是什么?稍后我将回顾关于 GI 概念精确定义的一些关键思路。定性地说,AGI 社区对通用智能的一些关键特征有广泛共识:
• 通用智能涉及在多种不同语境与环境中实现多种目标、完成多种任务的能力。
• 一个通用智能系统应能处理与其创造者预期相当不同的问题与情境。
• 一个通用智能系统应善于泛化已获得的知识,从而把这些知识从一个问题或语境迁移到其他问题或语境。
• 在现实的资源约束下,任意程度的通用智能是不可能的。
• 真实世界的系统可能展现不同程度的受限通用性,但不可避免地会特别擅长学某些东西、不擅长学另一些;对任何给定的真实系统,总有一些学习任务它慢得令人无法接受。因此,现实世界的通用智能不可避免地偏向某些类型的目标与环境。
• 人类展现的通用智能水平高于现有 AI 程序,显然也高于其他动物。
• 人类恰好展现最大程度的通用智能,这种可能性很小——即使相对于他们进化适应的目标与环境而言也是如此。
There is also a common intuition in the AGI community that various real-world general intelligences will tend to share certain common properties; though there is less agreement on what these properties are!
AGI 社区还有一个共同直觉:各种真实世界的通用智能会倾向于共享某些共同属性——尽管对"这些属性是什么"的共识要少得多!
1.2 核心 AGI 假说
The Core AGI Hypothesis
Another point broadly shared in the AGI community is confidence in what I would venture to call the "core AGI hypothesis," i.e. that
Core AGI hypothesis: the creation and study of synthetic intelligences with sufficiently broad (e.g. human-level) scope and strong generalization capability, is at bottom qualitatively different from the creation and study of synthetic intelligences with significantly narrower scope and weaker generalization capability.
AGI 社区广泛共享的另一点,是对我大胆称之为"核心 AGI 假说"的信心,即:
核心 AGI 假说:创造与研究范围足够广(如人类级)、泛化能力强的合成智能,与创造和研究范围显著更窄、泛化能力更弱的合成智能,在根本上是性质不同的两件事。
This "core AGI hypothesis" is explicitly articulated in English for the first time here in this review paper (it was presented previously in Japanese in Goertzel (2014)). I highlight it because it is something with which nearly all researchers in the AGI community agree, regardless of their different conceptualizations of the AGI concept and their different architectural, theoretical, technical and engineering approaches.
If this core hypothesis is correct, then distinguishing AGI as a separate pursuit and system class and property from the "narrow AI" that has come to constitute the main stream of the AI field, is a sensible and productive thing to do.
这一"核心 AGI 假说"在此综述论文中首次用英语明确表述(此前在 Goertzel 2014 的一篇日文论文中提出过)。我突出它,是因为无论 AGI 社区研究者对 AGI 概念有怎样不同的概念化、采用怎样不同的架构/理论/技术/工程路径,几乎所有人都会认同它。
如果这一核心假说成立,那么把 AGI 从已构成 AI 领域主流的"窄 AI"中区分出来,作为一个独立的追求、系统类别与属性,就是一件明智且有成效的事。
Note, the core AGI hypothesis doesn't imply there is zero commonality between narrower-scope AI work and AGI work. For instance, if a researcher is engineering a self-driving car via a combination of specialized AI techniques, they might use methods from the field of transfer learning to help each component of the car's control system (e.g. the object recognition system, the steering control system, etc.) better able to deal with various diverse situations it might encounter. This sort of transfer learning research, having to do with generalization, might have some overlap with the work one would need to do to make a generalized "AGI driver" that could, on its own, adapt its operations flexibly from one vehicle or one environment to another. But the core AGI hypothesis proposes that, in order to make the latter sort of AGI driver, additional architectural and dynamical principles would be required, beyond those needed to aid in the human-mediated, machine learning aided creation of a variety of narrowly specialized AI driving systems.
注意,核心 AGI 假说并不意味窄范围 AI 工作与 AGI 工作之间零共通性。例如,如果一位研究者用多种专用 AI 技术组合来造自动驾驶汽车,他可能会用迁移学习领域的方法,帮助汽车控制系统的每个组件(如物体识别系统、转向控制系统等)更好地应对可能遇到的各种场景。这类与泛化有关的迁移学习研究,与制造一个"通用 AGI 驾驶员"(能自主地把操作从一个车辆或环境灵活适配到另一个)所需的工作,可能有部分重叠。但核心 AGI 假说主张:要制造后一种 AGI 驾驶员,需要额外的架构与动力学原理——超出辅助"人工介导、机器学习辅助地制造各种窄专用 AI 驾驶系统"所需的原理。
1.3 AGI 领域的范围
The Scope of the AGI Field
Within the scope of the core AGI hypothesis, a number of different approaches to defining and characterizing AGI are under current study, encompassing psychological, mathematical, pragmatic and cognitive architecture perspectives. This paper surveys the contemporary AGI field in a fairly inclusive way. It also discusses the question of how much evidence exists for the core AGI hypothesis – and how the task of gathering more evidence about this hypothesis should best be pursued. The goal here is not to present any grand new conclusions, but rather to summarize and systematize some of the key aspects AGI as manifested in current science and engineering efforts.
在核心 AGI 假说的范围内,目前正在研究多种定义与刻画 AGI 的不同路径,涵盖心理学、数学、务实主义与认知架构视角。本文以相当包容的方式综述当代 AGI 领域,也讨论"核心 AGI 假说有多少证据"以及"如何最好地收集更多证据"的问题。本文的目标不是提出任何宏大的新结论,而是总结并系统化当前科学与工程努力中所体现的 AGI 的一些关键面向。
It is argued here that most contemporary approaches to designing AGI systems fall into four top-level categories: symbolic, emergentist, hybrid and universalist. Leading examples of each category are provided, and the generally perceived pros and cons of each category are summarized.
Not all contemporary AGI approaches seek to create human-like general intelligence specifically. But it is argued here, that, for any approach which does, there is a certain set of key cognitive processes and interactions that it must come to grips with, including familiar constructs such as working and long-term memory, deliberative and reactive processing, perception, action and reinforcement learning, metacognition and so forth.
本文主张,当代设计 AGI 系统的大多数路径可归入四个顶层类别:符号主义、涌现主义、混合主义与通用主义。文中给出每类的代表性例子,并总结每类通常被认为的优缺点。
并非所有当代 AGI 路径都专门追求创造类人的通用智能。但本文主张:任何确实追求类人通用智能的路径,都必须应对一组关键认知过程与交互——包括工作记忆与长时记忆、审慎加工与反应式加工、感知、行动与强化学习、元认知等熟悉的概念。
A robust theory of general intelligence, human-like or otherwise, remains elusive. Multiple approaches to defining general intelligence have been proposed, and in some cases these coincide with different approaches to designing AGI systems (so that various systems aim for general intelligence according to different definitions). The perspective presented here is that a mature theory of AGI would allow one to theoretically determine, based on a given environment and goal set and collection of resource constraints, the optimal AGI architecture for achieving the goals in the environments given the constraints. Lacking such a theory at present, researchers must conceive architectures via diverse theoretical paradigms and then evaluate them via practical metrics.
一个稳健的通用智能理论(无论是否类人)仍然难以捉摸。已有多重定义通用智能的路径被提出,有些情况下它们与不同的 AGI 系统设计路径相重合(因此不同系统按不同定义追求通用智能)。本文的视角是:一个成熟的 AGI 理论应能让人从理论上确定——基于给定的环境、目标集与资源约束集合——在约束下达成环境目标的最优 AGI 架构。目前缺乏这样的理论,研究者必须通过多样的理论范式构想架构,再用实际的度量来评估它们。
Finally, in order for a community to work together toward common goals, environments and metrics for evaluation of progress are necessary. Metrics for assessing the achievement of human-level AGI are argued to be fairly straightforward, including e.g. the classic Turing test, and the test of operating a robot that can graduate from elementary school or university. On the other hand, metrics for assessing partial progress toward human-level AGI are shown to be more controversial and problematic, with different metrics suiting different AGI approaches, and with the possibility of systems whose partial versions perform poorly on commonsensical metrics, yet whose complete versions perform well. The problem of defining agreed-upon metrics for incremental progress remains largely open, and this constitutes a substantial challenge for the young field of AGI moving forward.
最后,为了让一个社区向共同目标协作,评估进展的环境与度量是必要的。本文主张,评估"达成人类级 AGI"的度量相当直接——包括经典的图灵测试,以及"操作一个能从小学或大学毕业的机器人"的测试。另一方面,评估"朝人类级 AGI 的部分进展"的度量被证明更具争议性与问题性:不同度量适合不同 AGI 路径,而且存在这样的可能——某系统的部分版本在常识性度量上表现不佳,完整版本却表现良好。为增量进展定义公认度量的问题在很大程度上仍然开放,这对年轻的 AGI 领域构成重大挑战。